Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing June 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the theoretical 2025.3% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the theoretical 2025.3% implied yield on the Yes side. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract's minimal trading activity, and the massive yield differential (2025.3% vs 3.5%) suggests the market lacks sufficient price discovery. With 433 days until expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, this appears to be a speculative contract with insufficient market depth to warrant serious analysis.
Resolution rules
If Jack Schlossberg finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-NY12D26-2-JSCH yes 100