Will Karen Bass finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$795
5 contracts
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
419 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary
Cluster 2
Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary
Cluster 3
Will Haley Stevens finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary
Cluster 4
Will Mallory McMorrow finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary
Cluster 5
Will Abdul El-Sayed finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary
Analysis
This market estimates a 23% chance that Karen Bass finishes second in the first round of Los Angeles's 2026 mayoral election. The current probability reflects Bass's position as the incumbent mayor, which typically provides name recognition and organizational advantages, but also makes her vulnerable to challenges from other established candidates. The main uncertainty centers on whether competing candidates can consolidate opposition or if Bass retains enough support to either win outright or place higher. Related markets suggest traders view contests between Bass and candidates like Nithya Raman or Spencer Pratt as plausible primary outcomes. The election's first round will ultimately determine whether Bass maintains her political standing or if accumulated challenges from local issues, housing concerns, or competing candidates reshape the race dynamics. The final results will provide direct resolution of this outcome.
- ›Bass's current approval ratings as incumbent mayor and whether they've shifted since taking office
- ›The number and quality of competing candidates entering the race and their ability to split the vote
- ›Polling data from Los Angeles voters on primary preferences and Bass's relative standing among them
- ›Voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles primary elections and demographic shifts that could affect Bass's base
- ›Major local policy issues or crises between now and the election that could shift voter sentiment toward or away from Bass
What moved the line
- Jun 24James Fishback↓13pp62→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Jay Collins↑10pp41→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Jay Collins↑8pp28→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Jay Collins↑6pp22→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Jay Collins↑5pp36→41¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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