Will Karen Bass finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election

30-day trend

Analysis

This market indicates a 30% probability that Karen Bass finishes in second place in Los Angeles's first-round mayoral election. Bass currently serves as Los Angeles's mayor, having taken office in 2022. Her placement would depend on the competitive field size, voter turnout, and support distribution across candidates. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether she would retain enough backing to place second or fall lower in a potentially crowded field. The resolution occurs on election day when first-round results are officially certified. Key drivers include whether Bass faces primary challengers with concentrated support and how vote-splitting among multiple candidates affects placement.

• ›Bass's approval ratings and voter satisfaction as incumbent mayor heading into the election
• ›Number and strength of competing candidates in the mayoral field
• ›Voter turnout rates and geographic distribution of support across Los Angeles districts
• ›Whether the election is decided in the first round or advances to a runoff based on Los Angeles voting rules
• ›Recent polling or primary-specific surveys showing Bass's position relative to other leading candidates

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will Mandela Barnes finish 2nd in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 0d
• Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
• Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Islandlast 14% · 1d
• Will Jamie Belsito be the Democratic nominee for MA-6last 47% · 1d
• Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahomalast 50% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds