Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic volatility, plummeting 21 percentage points over seven days (76¢ to 55¢), suggesting significant new information has shifted sentiment against Cavanaugh's nomination chances.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic volatility, plummeting 21 percentage points over seven days (76¢ to 55¢), suggesting significant new information has shifted sentiment against Cavanaugh's nomination chances. The extreme realized volatility of 595% and vol ratio of 5.22 indicate this is a highly unstable market, though the tight 1¢ spread and reasonable $4.2K open interest suggest adequate liquidity for a niche political contract. The asymmetric implied yields (149% for Yes vs. 222% for No) reflect the recent bearish repricing, making this a high-risk speculation with 201 days until resolution to absorb further developments.
Resolution rules
If John Cavanaugh wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NE-2 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNE2D-26-JCAV yes 100