Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-reward dynamics, with a 286% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.3% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price may undervalue Amash's chances relative to market consensus on Libertarian nomination outcomes.
Analysis
This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-reward dynamics, with a 286% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.3% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price may undervalue Amash's chances relative to market consensus on Libertarian nomination outcomes. The thin liquidity ($35.11 open interest, $45.11 daily volume) and wide 3¢ spread indicate low conviction trading, though the modest 1¢ price increase over seven days suggests stability despite the long 936-day timeframe to expiry. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 warrants caution, as unexpected political developments or Amash's own decisions could create sharp repricing in this illiquid venue.
Resolution rules
If Justin Amash wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOML-28-JAMA yes 100