SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 2027243 days left

Will Kendrick Lamar be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?

This contract is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 9¢ spread.

Implied probability

14¢
$21 volume
$21 liquidity
212% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$10

Best sibling

Bad Bunny 41¢

Ticker

KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-KEN

Price history

14¢ current

+11¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 25, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 13¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
100¢200
4¢5
3¢200
2¢130
AskSize
13¢200
83¢68
86¢52
87¢885
99¢200

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Kendrick Lamar is on the The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-KEN

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3607.7%

IY (No)

6.3%

Adj IY

1804%

CRI

24

Overround

5.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

3607.7%
6.3%
Adj IY
1804%
24
Overround
5.0%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

Blogtech

MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket

Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index