Will Rihanna be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$47
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tom Holland be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Tom Holland be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Tom Holland
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-TOM
Cluster 2
Will Post Malone be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Post Malone be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Post Malone
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-POS
Cluster 3
Will Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Cluster 4
Will Ariana Grande be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Ariana Grande be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Ariana Grande
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-ARI
Cluster 5
Will Bad Bunny be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Bad Bunny be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Bad Bunny
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-BAD
Cluster 6
Will Beyoncé be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Beyoncé be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Beyoncé
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-BEY
Cluster 7
Will Billie Eilish be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Billie Eilish be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Billie Eilish
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-BIL
Cluster 8
Will Charli D’Amelio be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Cluster 9
Will Christopher Nolan be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Cluster 10
Will Drake be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Drake be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Drake
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-DRA
Cluster 11
Will Harry Styles be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Harry Styles be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Harry Styles
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-HAR
Cluster 12
Will Jennifer Lawrence be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Cluster 13
Will Kendrick Lamar be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Kendrick Lamar be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Kendrick Lamar
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-KEN
Cluster 14
Will Kim Kardashian be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Cluster 15
Will Kylie Jenner be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Kylie Jenner be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Kylie Jenner
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-KYL
Cluster 16
Will LeBron James be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will LeBron James be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: LeBron James
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LEB
Cluster 17
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Cluster 18
Will Lionel Messi be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Lionel Messi be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Lionel Messi
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LIO
Cluster 19
Will Logan Paul be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Logan Paul be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Logan Paul
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-LOG
Cluster 20
Will Margot Robbie be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027
Will Margot Robbie be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?: Margot Robbie
KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-MAR
Analysis
This contract estimates the odds that Rihanna will appear on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon at some point between now and the end of 2026. At 20%, the market reflects a moderately low probability, comparable to Billie Eilish's 22% but lower than Bad Bunny's 41% and Ariana Grande's 54%. The main factors influencing this level are Rihanna's current activity level in music and media, her touring and promotional schedule for the remainder of 2026, and historical appearance patterns on the show. The contract resolves when either an appearance is confirmed or December 31, 2026 arrives with no appearance. Unlike scheduled events, there's no specific upcoming catalyst—the resolution depends on Rihanna's business decisions and any album, tour, or project announcements that would warrant late-night promotion in the next eight months.
- ›Rihanna's last album release was 2016; any new music project announcement in 2026 would significantly increase appearance likelihood
- ›The show books approximately 3-4 musical guests per week, meaning roughly 150-200 total slots remain through year-end, providing substantial opportunity
- ›Comparable artists show varying probabilities (Bad Bunny 41%, Ariana Grande 54%, Beyoncé 18%), suggesting guest appearance frequency varies widely by artist type and current public profile
- ›Rihanna's business commitments and non-music ventures (Fenty, acting projects) may reduce availability compared to full-time touring artists
- ›Historical appearance data for Rihanna on the show over the past 2-3 years would indicate whether she's an active late-night circuit participant or selective guest
What moved the line
- Jun 22Tom Holland↑7pp45→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Tom Holland↓7pp52→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Tom Holland↓5pp50→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Tom Holland↑4pp46→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Post Malone↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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