SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 2027243 days left

Will Tom Holland be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027?

This contract is priced at 78¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 75¢ ask, 11¢ spread.

Implied probability

78¢
$2K volume
$2K liquidity
18127% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$10

Best sibling

Bad Bunny 41¢

Ticker

KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-TOM

Price history

78¢ current

+24¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

64 / 75¢

Kalshi
11¢ spread
BidSize
64¢5
63¢1
59¢7
58¢200
50¢1
AskSize
75¢200
85¢7
92¢38
93¢59
98¢951

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Tom Holland is on the The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXMEDIAGUESTFALLON-27-TOM

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

84.5%

IY (No)

267.2%

Adj IY

111%

CRI

2

Overround

5.0%

LAS

0.17

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

84.5%
267.2%
Adj IY
111%
2
Overround
5.0%
LAS
0.17

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