What is the current probability for "Will Larry Page announce they're leaving California?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 57¢ (57% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Larry Page announce they're leaving California?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 112.9% and 182.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Larry Page announce they're leaving California?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Larry Page announce they're leaving California?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will Larry Page announce they're leaving California?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,137 open interest, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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57¢

Bid/Ask 56/57¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $1,099·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-LPAG

7-day price16 snapshots · 2 regime

65¢56¢ current

Apr 854¢Apr 15

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,137 open interest, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (110.6% Yes vs 179.2% No) suggest the No side is significantly underpriced relative to the Yes side, though this may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine edge. The 5-cent decline over seven days combined with 259 days to expiry and low cliff risk indicates the market has stabilized, but traders should demand a substantial liquidity premium before committing capital to either side.

Resolution rules

If Larry Page announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 112.9%

IY (No) 182.8%

Adj IY 91%

CRI 1

Overround 1.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	112.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	182.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	91%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:54:12 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-LPAG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →