Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Lucas Brennan win the Marshall vs Brennan professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 21¢ (21% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 18 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Lucas Brennan win the Marshall vs Brennan professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10463.9% and 379.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Lucas Brennan win the Marshall vs Brennan professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10463.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	379.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	10464%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	11229%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	25.31	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Will Lucas Brennan win the Marshall vs Brennan professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026?

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