Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1261% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.2% on the No side, reflecting the 5¢ price and deep out-of-the-money positioning for a Kelly VP nomination.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1261% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.2% on the No side, reflecting the 5¢ price and deep out-of-the-money positioning for a Kelly VP nomination. The $36.7K open interest paired with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity and stale pricing, making this contract difficult to trade at fair value. With 936 days to expiration, the market has ample time for repricing, though the neutral regime and modest 32 cliff risk index indicate no immediate catalysts are expected to move this probability materially.
Resolution rules
If Mark Kelly accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-MKEL yes 100