Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate rather than a technical floor.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate rather than a technical floor. The massive 1231.6% implied yield on the "No" side and 616% risk-adjusted yield signal severe mispricing or a completely inactive market, suggesting traders should be cautious about any position given the lack of exit liquidity. With 563 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this contract needs meaningful volume and open interest before it becomes tradeable.
Resolution rules
If Marty Jackley wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 SD-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC yes 100