Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of April?

The market is pricing in a 96% probability that MSFT closes above $360 by April 30, 2026, but the extreme implied yield on the "No" side (75,936%) signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only $4,187 in open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 12-day countdown, this thin market lacks the depth to validate such a lopsided probability, and the 4¢ spread suggests minimal active trading. The cliff risk index of 24 indicates meaningful tail risk in the final days, making this more of a liquidity trap than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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