Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of April?

The 67¢ price implies MSFT needs to stay above $405 in just 12 days, but the extreme yield asymmetry—1,553% for Yes versus 6,401% for No—signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the thin $100 daily volume and wide 29¢ spread. The sharp 9¢ price decline over seven days combined with 378% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests this market is experiencing significant uncertainty near expiration, making the current odds potentially unreliable for directional betting.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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