Miguel Díaz-Canel · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Miguel Díaz-Canel is priced at 59¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 59¢ bid, 60¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
Price history
59¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Miguel Díaz-Canel has either officially announced their intention to leave as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or has actually left First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Keir Starmer 100¢
Range
2¢-100¢
Family volume
$92K
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
Jun 22, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
59¢
Ask
60¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Family volume
$92K
Orderbook snapshot
59 / 60¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Miguel Díaz-Canel has either officially announced their intention to leave as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or has actually left First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
Event family
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$92K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Keir Starmer 100¢
Current share
5%
Keir Starmer
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KSTAUK
Gustavo Petro
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GPETCOL
Benjamin Netanyahu
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-BNETISR
Miguel Díaz-Canel
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
Aleksandar Vučić
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AVUCPSER
Christopher Luxon
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PLUXPMNZ
Delcy Rodriguez
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DRODAPRE
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VZELUKR
Cyril Ramaphosa
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CRAMSAFR
Vladimir Putin
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Ahmad al-Sharaa
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AALSSYR
Daniel Noboa
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DNOBECUA
Narendra Modi
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-NMODIND
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-RERDTUR
Xi Jinping
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-XJINCHI
Irfaan Ali
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-IALIPGUY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.