Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 28% of their title tokens — “Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027” vs “Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 2
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 3
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Cluster 4
Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?: Gustavo Petro
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GPETCOL
Cluster 5
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 6
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 7
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Sanae Takaichi
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP
Cluster 8
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027?: Emmanuel Macron
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-EMACFRA
Cluster 9
Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027?: Ahmad al-Sharaa
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AALSSYR
Cluster 10
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?: Friedrich Merz
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Cluster 11
Will Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 12
Will Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia before Jan 1, 2027?: Aleksandar Vučić
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AVUCPSER
Cluster 13
Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027
Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027?: Cyril Ramaphosa
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CRAMSAFR
Cluster 14
Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027
Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?: Claudia Sheinbaum
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CSHEPMEX
Cluster 15
Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027
Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027?: Daniel Noboa
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DNOBECUA
Cluster 16
Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 17
Will Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 18
Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027
Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027?: Giorgia Meloni
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GMELITA
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Mark Carney steps down as Canadian Prime Minister within the next 7.5 months. At 14%, the market suggests it's relatively unlikely but not improbable. The current level reflects baseline political stability expectations, though Canadian politics has experienced leadership transitions, and a Prime Minister's tenure can be affected by electoral pressure, party dynamics, or personal circumstances. The main catalysts that would shift this probability include major policy failures, significant polling declines, internal party pressure, or an unexpected resignation announcement. The most immediate uncertainty resolver would be the next federal election timeline or any formal indication from Carney's office about his political future. The relatively modest probability suggests markets currently view his position as reasonably secure through 2026, barring major disruptions to Canadian political conditions.
- ›Current polling and approval ratings for Mark Carney's government compared to opposition parties
- ›Timeline and likelihood of a federal election being called before January 1, 2027
- ›Historical precedent for Canadian Prime Ministers serving full terms versus resigning mid-mandate
- ›Public statements or signals from Carney or senior government figures about leadership continuity
- ›Major policy defeats, confidence votes, or parliamentary dynamics that could destabilize his position
What moved the line
- Jun 25Benjamin Netanyahu↓11pp62→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Delcy Rodriguez↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Aleksandar Vučić↓4pp56→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Delcy Rodriguez↑4pp21→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Miguel Díaz-Canel↓3pp58→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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