Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+10pp
12h ago
24h volume
$8K
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
243 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027” vs “Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Cluster 2
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 3
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 4
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 5
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 6
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027?: Emmanuel Macron
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-EMACFRA
Cluster 7
Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?: Gustavo Petro
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GPETCOL
Cluster 8
Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 9
Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027
Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?: Javier Milei
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-JMILARG
Cluster 10
Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 11
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 12
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 13
Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027
Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Carney
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MCARCAN
Cluster 14
Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027
Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027?: Cyril Ramaphosa
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CRAMSAFR
Cluster 15
Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027
Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027?: Giorgia Meloni
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GMELITA
Cluster 16
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 17
Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027
Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027?: Narendra Modi
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-NMODIND
Cluster 18
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Sanae Takaichi
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP
Cluster 19
Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027
Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?: Kim Jong Un
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KJONDPRK
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Mark Carney steps down as Canadian Prime Minister within the next 7.5 months. At 14%, the market suggests it's relatively unlikely but not improbable. The current level reflects baseline political stability expectations, though Canadian politics has experienced leadership transitions, and a Prime Minister's tenure can be affected by electoral pressure, party dynamics, or personal circumstances. The main catalysts that would shift this probability include major policy failures, significant polling declines, internal party pressure, or an unexpected resignation announcement. The most immediate uncertainty resolver would be the next federal election timeline or any formal indication from Carney's office about his political future. The relatively modest probability suggests markets currently view his position as reasonably secure through 2026, barring major disruptions to Canadian political conditions.
- ›Current polling and approval ratings for Mark Carney's government compared to opposition parties
- ›Timeline and likelihood of a federal election being called before January 1, 2027
- ›Historical precedent for Canadian Prime Ministers serving full terms versus resigning mid-mandate
- ›Public statements or signals from Carney or senior government figures about leadership continuity
- ›Major policy defeats, confidence votes, or parliamentary dynamics that could destabilize his position
What moved the line
- Apr 26Mark Carney↓5pp7→2¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Benjamin Netanyahu↑3pp42→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Emmanuel Macron↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Delcy Rodriguez↑3pp23→26¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.