Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
15 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 31% of their title tokens — “Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027” vs “Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?: Friedrich Merz
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Cluster 2
Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 3
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Cluster 4
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 5
Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 6
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 7
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 8
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 9
Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 10
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Sanae Takaichi
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP
Cluster 11
Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027
Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?: Claudia Sheinbaum
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CSHEPMEX
Cluster 12
Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027
Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?: Pedro Sánchez
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PSANPM
Cluster 13
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 14
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 15
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027?: Emmanuel Macron
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-EMACFRA
Analysis
This probability reflects a 12% chance that Mark Carney ceases to serve as Prime Minister of Canada between today and January 1, 2027—roughly 5.5 months away. The current level suggests markets view his departure as unlikely but not negligible. Key drivers include political stability in Canada's parliamentary system, polling trends on government confidence, and the scheduled timing of the next federal election (currently due by October 2025, though may have already occurred). The primary catalyst for resolution would be either an election outcome or a confidence vote in Parliament that forces a change in leadership. Market pricing on comparable leaders shows Carney at a lower departure probability than Netanyahu (36%) but higher than Xi Jinping (3%), reflecting differences in political system volatility and tenure security across jurisdictions.
- ›Federal election timing and results, as a new election would most directly trigger a change in Prime Minister
- ›Current polling data on voter confidence in Carney's government and likelihood of defeating the opposition
- ›Parliamentary confidence mechanics—any loss of majority support or successful non-confidence motion would force immediate departure
- ›International or domestic crises that could destabilize the government between now and year-end
- ›Leadership succession clarity within the ruling party, which affects probability of internal removal scenarios
What moved the line
- Sep 17Delcy Rodriguez↓5pp9→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Sanae Takaichi↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Delcy Rodriguez↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Friedrich Merz↑3pp19→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Friedrich Merz↑3pp22→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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