Friedrich Merz · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Friedrich Merz is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
Price history
14¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Friedrich Merz
Rank
#9 of 16
Leader
Keir Starmer 99¢
Range
2¢-99¢
Family volume
$54K
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Jun 22, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$16K
Family rank
#9 of 16
16 outcomes · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Family volume
$54K
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Event family
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$54K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Keir Starmer 99¢
Current share
0%
Keir Starmer
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KSTAUK
Gustavo Petro
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GPETCOL
Benjamin Netanyahu
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-BNETISR
Miguel Díaz-Canel
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
Aleksandar Vučić
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AVUCPSER
Christopher Luxon
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PLUXPMNZ
Delcy Rodriguez
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DRODAPRE
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VZELUKR
Friedrich Merz
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Cyril Ramaphosa
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CRAMSAFR
Vladimir Putin
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Narendra Modi
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-NMODIND
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-RERDTUR
Mark Carney
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MCARCAN
Xi Jinping
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-XJINCHI
Javier Milei
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-JMILARG
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.