Friedrich Merz · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Friedrich Merz is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
Price history
21¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Friedrich Merz
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Benjamin Netanyahu 47¢
Range
1¢-47¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Sep 20, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Event family
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Benjamin Netanyahu 47¢
Current share
30%
Benjamin Netanyahu
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-BNETISR
Christopher Luxon
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PLUXPMNZ
Friedrich Merz
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Miguel Díaz-Canel
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
Pedro Sánchez
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PSANPM
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VZELUKR
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LSILBRA
Delcy Rodriguez
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DRODAPRE
Vladimir Putin
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Xi Jinping
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-XJINCHI
Mohammed bin Salman
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MBSSARA
Claudia Sheinbaum
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CSHEPMEX
Sanae Takaichi
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP
Giorgia Meloni
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GMELITA
Narendra Modi
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-NMODIND
Mark Carney
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MCARCAN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.