Will Minnesota Wild win 4-2 in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?

Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Minnesota Wild win 4-2 in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 32¢ price generating an absurd 6,508% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting severe illiquidity and low conviction rather than genuine probability assessment.

██████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

54¢

Bid/Ask 50/55¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $927.37·OI $14,274.95·Closes May 16, 2026·17d remaining

KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26MINDALR1-MIN42

7-day price415 snapshots · 56 regime

58¢50¢ current

Apr 172¢Apr 30

Analysis

10d ago

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 32¢ price generating an absurd 6,508% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting severe illiquidity and low conviction rather than genuine probability assessment. The 19¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the dramatic 7-day rally from 2¢ to 17¢ (then settling at 32¢) indicates volatile, thin trading with only $1,755 in 24-hour volume across $4,432 open interest. With 27 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market is likely driven by speculative positioning rather than fundamental NHL playoff forecasting, making the quoted probability unreliable for serious prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

If the series score is Minnesota Wild wins 4-2 in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2211.5%

IY (No) 2211.5%

Adj IY 1946%

CRI 1

RV 5751%

VR 3.21

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2211.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2211.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1946%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5751%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.21	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.12	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/30/2026, 9:31:30 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 9:23:15 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26MINDALR1-MIN42 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →