Will Mumbai Indians win the IPL?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Mumbai Indians win the IPL?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing June 15, 2026. Mumbai Indians' odds have collapsed dramatically from 20¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information arrived about their 2026 IPL prospects, though the 1608% realized volatility indicates extreme price swings rather than directional conviction.
Analysis
Mumbai Indians' odds have collapsed dramatically from 20¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information arrived about their 2026 IPL prospects, though the 1608% realized volatility indicates extreme price swings rather than directional conviction. The 9% probability appears potentially mispriced given the team's historical strength in IPL, with the asymmetric implied yields (8142% Yes vs 46% No) reflecting the long-shot nature, though the thin 1¢ spread and $376k open interest provide reasonable liquidity for a niche cricket market. With 60 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 0.9 events per hour, this market remains highly reactive to IPL news, making the current price vulnerable to reversal if Mumbai's performance trajectory improves.
Resolution rules
If the Mumbai Indians are the 2026 Indian Premier League Cricket Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade KXIPL-26-MI yes 100