Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Polymarket, closing July 19, 2026. The 47¢ price reflects meaningful uncertainty about Neymar's participation, with the market having surged 20 points over seven days—likely driven by recent injury updates or contract developments—while maintaining healthy liquidity at $10.6k open interest and $19k daily volume.
Analysis
The 47¢ price reflects meaningful uncertainty about Neymar's participation, with the market having surged 20 points over seven days—likely driven by recent injury updates or contract developments—while maintaining healthy liquidity at $10.6k open interest and $19k daily volume. The extreme realized volatility of 595% and vol ratio of 2.84 suggest this market is pricing in substantial binary risks around his fitness and availability heading into the tournament 94 days out. The 389% risk-adjusted implied yield is notably elevated but justified given the high information arrival rate of 2.6 events per hour and the binary nature of injury/selection outcomes for a 37-year-old player by tournament time.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Brazil during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xb60c044bba6f7958768691345df1e102448a5b7ef16e4a08879bb10483fb4567 yes 100