Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Will Neymar play in the World Cup is priced at 90¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 89¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
90¢ current
+48¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Brazil during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$2.7M
Identifier
0xb60c044b...4567
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$19K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Family volume
$2.7M
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Brazil during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Identifier
0xb60c044b…4567
Event family
Will Neymar play in the World Cup.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2.7M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Neymar play in the World Cup 90¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
sports
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Event Probability API
Read 90% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.