Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
40%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−3pp
11h ago
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
76 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0xb60c04…4567
Analysis
This probability estimates whether Neymar will participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America. At 43%, the market reflects meaningful uncertainty about his availability by that date. Neymar's inclusion depends on his fitness level, injury status, and performance over the next two years, as well as his club situation and international team selection. His age (34 by 2026) and recent injury history will be primary considerations for Brazil's coaching staff. The tournament itself begins in June 2026, with squad announcements typically occurring one to two months prior. Key indicators will include his playing time and injury-free periods during the 2025-2026 club season, his performance in qualifying matches during 2025-2026, and official statements from Brazil's federation regarding their squad planning.
- ›Neymar's injury history and current physical condition determine availability; sustained fitness during 2025-2026 would support participation
- ›His age at tournament time (34 years) and recent recovery timelines suggest Brazil may prioritize younger alternatives for squad spots
- ›Playing time and form at his club during the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 seasons will signal whether he remains in contention for selection
- ›Brazil's qualifying campaign performance and interim management decisions will shape squad composition priorities ahead of June 2026
- ›The timing of squad announcements (typically April-May 2026) creates a defined resolution point with limited remaining uncertainty
What moved the line
- Apr 29Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?↑4pp39→43¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (40% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.