Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 90% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
90%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
41 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Neymar play in the World Cup
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
0xb60c04…4567
Analysis
This 81% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Neymar will be included in Brazil's roster for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The estimate balances Neymar's status as a star player against injury concerns and competition for limited squad spots. His fitness level and performance for his club leading up to the tournament represent the primary factors moving this probability. The squad announcement by Brazil's coach—typically occurring in the weeks before the tournament—will be the decisive moment that resolves this contract, though signs of injury or reduced playing time beforehand could shift expectations significantly earlier.
- ›Neymar's injury history and current physical condition, which directly affects his availability and selection likelihood
- ›His club performance and playing time during the 2025-2026 season, which coaches typically use as primary selection criteria
- ›Brazil's midfield and attacking depth, determining whether squad slots prioritize experience versus emerging talent
- ›Official squad announcement by Brazil's coach in late 2026, which definitively settles the outcome
- ›Any significant injury occurrence in the months immediately preceding the World Cup selection
Recently closed in sports
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- ATP Tennis Matcheslast 50% · 2d
- WTA Tennis MatchesSemifinal match?: Elina Svitolinalast 50% · 3d
- Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cuplast 84% · 6d
- UEFA Champions Leaguelast 50% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.