SimpleFunctions

Nicolás Maduro · KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCHTOP5-26DEC

Nicolás Maduro is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 15 inside KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCHTOP5-26DEC.

Price history

31¢ current

+19¢
10¢20¢30¢
May 26, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If Nicolás Maduro is in Top 5 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Nicolás Maduro

Rank

#3 of 15

Leader

Bad Bunny 68¢

Range

2¢-68¢

Family volume

$68

Identifier

KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCHTOP5-26DEC-NICO

Jun 19, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 23m ago

Implied probability

31¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 19, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 23m ago

Bid

27¢

Ask

32¢

Spread

Reported volume

$1K

Family rank

#3 of 15

15 outcomes · KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCHTOP5-26DEC

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$68

Orderbook snapshot

27 / 32¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
27¢10
26¢125
24¢250
18¢52
17¢1.0K
AskSize
32¢5
33¢125
34¢286
52¢20
54¢147

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Nicolás Maduro is in Top 5 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXRANKLISTGOOGLESEARCHTOP5-26DEC-NICO

SF Signal
SF Index
252.99
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

506.0%

IY (No)

69.2%

Adj IY

253%

CRI

3

Overround

1.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

506.0%
69.2%
Adj IY
253%
3
Overround
1.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.