Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 2
Will Savannah Guthrie be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 3
Will Erling Haaland be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 4
Will Taylor Swift be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 5
Will Bad Bunny be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 6
Will Billie Eilish be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 7
Will Elon Musk be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 8
Will Fernando Mendoza be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 9
Will Joe Biden be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 10
Will Kamala Harris be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 11
Will Nicolás Maduro be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 12
Will OG Anunoby be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 13
Will Sam Altman be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 14
Will Vladimir Putin be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 15
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 16
Will Zohran Mamdani be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Zelenskyy will rank among Google's five most-searched people globally in 2026. The 18% probability reflects moderate odds compared to other political and entertainment figures. Zelenskyy's search volume depends primarily on the intensity and media coverage of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which remains an active geopolitical situation. His ranking could increase if major military developments, diplomatic negotiations, or peace talks occur that draw global attention. It could decrease if the conflict becomes less prominent in international news cycles. Resolution will occur in December 2026 when Google releases its official Year in Search rankings for people worldwide, making this a binary outcome determinable through public data.
- ›Zelenskyy's search ranking depends directly on Ukraine conflict visibility in global news; sustained conflict or major escalation would increase search volume, while relative stability or reduced coverage would decrease it
- ›Comparison to Trump (14¢), Haaland (39¢), and Bad Bunny (64¢) suggests markets view entertainment and sports figures as more consistently high-search than political leaders in non-election years
- ›The contract resolves in early December 2026 when Google publishes its official Year in Search rankings, providing a clear binary outcome with no ambiguity
- ›Search trends can shift rapidly based on unexpected events; the final five rankings will reflect accumulated global search behavior across the entire calendar year
- ›Political figures typically appear in top searches during major elections or crises; Ukraine conflict intensity throughout 2026 will be the dominant factor affecting Zelenskyy's ranking
What moved the line
- Aug 3Elon Musk↓9pp18→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Elon Musk↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Nicolás Maduro↑5pp20→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Elon Musk↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Zohran Mamdani↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ukraine
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- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the next the Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before Jan 4, 2027last 97% · 25d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Russia-Ukraine War Dynamics Show Mixed Signals: Kostyantynivka Remains Contested as Political Probabilities Fluctuate, with Peace Deal Prospects Still Distant Heading into Late 2026.
Russia Advancing on Donbas — Kostyantynivka Capture by June at 62%
Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture by June 2026 at 62%, reflecting expectations of sustained Russian Donbas momentum and minimal ceasefire prospects through 2026.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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