Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $152.8k open interest and a massive 48¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 58¢ price may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $152.8k open interest and a massive 48¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 58¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The 1062% realized volatility and 14.41 vol ratio indicate wild price swings—the contract jumped 14¢ in seven days—while the 81% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side suggests sophisticated traders are heavily discounting a token launch despite the neutral regime. With 625 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 2.1/hour, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal recent trading activity rather than an efficiently priced market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x55a990a1ec15480a5b8f3e91ad912b7bb0e564ad79ab4bc22261017af8f1f279 yes 100