Will Patrick Mosolf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Patrick Mosolf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $49 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $49 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 5882% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine opportunity, while the 6¢ spread represents 200% of the current price—a massive friction cost that makes entry/exit prohibitively expensive. With 201 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a thin, speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a meaningful prediction.
Resolution rules
If Patrick Mosolf wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 VA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVA2D-26-PMOS yes 100