Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Peter Thiel announce they're leaving California?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 61¢ (61% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Peter Thiel announce they're leaving California?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 99.8% and 206.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Peter Thiel announce they're leaving California?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	99.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	206.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	103%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Peter Thiel announce they're leaving California?

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