Will Rafa Garcia win the Garcia vs Hernandez professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Rafa Garcia win the Garcia vs Hernandez professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with the Yes price surging 2¢ to 41¢ over seven days, though liquidity remains thin at $292 in 24-hour volume and only $237.93 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with the Yes price surging 2¢ to 41¢ over seven days, though liquidity remains thin at $292 in 24-hour volume and only $237.93 open interest. The implied yield of 2573.3% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high, suggesting either very sharp odds movement or minimal capital deployed, while the 20-day window to fight resolution (Apr 25) creates significant cliff risk despite the neutral regime score. The tight 3¢ spread and modest open interest indicate this is a low-conviction, illiquid market where price discovery may be unreliable.
Resolution rules
If Rafa Garcia wins the Garcia vs Hernandez professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCFIGHT-26APR25GARHER-GAR yes 100