What is the current probability for "Will Rajasthan Royals win the IPL?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 15, 2026. 55 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Rajasthan Royals win the IPL?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3781.0% and 117.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Rajasthan Royals win the IPL?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Rajasthan Royals win the IPL?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Rajasthan Royals win the IPL?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing June 15, 2026. Rajasthan Royals are priced at just 20¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,790% on the Yes side, suggesting the market is pricing in extremely long odds despite the team's historical competitiveness in IPL.

██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

16¢

Bid/Ask 15/16¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $9,639.75·OI $397,657.4·Closes Jun 15, 2026·55d remaining

KXIPL-26-RR

7-day price214 snapshots · 122 regime

25¢15¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Rajasthan Royals are priced at just 20¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,790% on the Yes side, suggesting the market is pricing in extremely long odds despite the team's historical competitiveness in IPL. The 7-day price movement from 14¢ to 18¢ indicates recent bullish sentiment, though the 477% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (5) signal this market experiences sharp swings, likely driven by match results and injury news with an information arrival rate of 0.6 events per hour. With $351k open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity is reasonable for a long-dated sports contract, though the 60-day window to the June 2026 close means significant IPL tournament action remains to be priced in.

Resolution rules

If the Rajasthan Royals are the 2026 Indian Premier League Cricket Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3781.0%

IY (No) 117.7%

Adj IY 3529%

CRI 6

RV 433%

VR 0.68

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3781.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	117.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3529%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	433%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.68	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:23:09 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPL-26-RR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →