Will the Rolex Index hit $11,950 (LOW) by April 30?

This market displays extreme mispricing signals with a 20¢ price implying only 20% probability despite an astronomical 13,974% implied yield on YES, suggesting severe underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile. The Rolex Index would need to decline just 2.0% from current levels to trigger resolution, yet realized volatility of 5,651% and a cliff risk index of 5 indicate the market is pricing in tail-risk scenarios that seem inconsistent with such a modest price target. With only $5.43 in 24-hour volume and a wide 22¢ spread against $693k open interest, liquidity is critically thin, raising concerns about whether the 20¢ price reflects genuine conviction or merely illiquidity-driven mispricing in the final 14 days before expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.

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