Will Rolex prices hit __ by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 6 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
36%
6 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$211K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
209 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
Cluster 2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $120
0xba8af6…2421
Cluster 3
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $12,000
0xd004d5…f87f
What moved the line
- Jun 3↓ 1,500↑6pp62→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↓ 1,500↑6pp68→74¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2↓ 45,000↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↓ 45,000↑4pp39→43¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2↓ 1,500↑4pp58→62¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- # of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?: 10+last 86% · 0d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 0d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 1d
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 1d
- Will Trump publicly insult someone on...last 93% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.