What is the current probability for "Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 85¢ (85% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1532.1% and 13789.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This illiquid micro-market is pricing in an 85% probability of Spanish GDP growth exceeding 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2026, but the $0 24-hour volume and just $116 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind the price.

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85¢

Bid/Ask 75/90¢·Spread 15¢·Vol $0·OI $116·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.3

7-day price27 snapshots · 7 regime

76¢75¢ current

Apr 874¢Apr 20

Analysis

5d ago

This illiquid micro-market is pricing in an 85% probability of Spanish GDP growth exceeding 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2026, but the $0 24-hour volume and just $116 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind the price. The extreme implied yields (920.9% for Yes, 8287.9% for No) reflect the thin liquidity and wide 15¢ spread, with resolution just 13 days away creating cliff risk as the flash estimate approaches on April 30th. The price has barely moved in seven days (74¢ to 75¢), indicating the market may be stale or consensus-driven rather than actively traded.

Resolution rules

If Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.3 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1532.1%

IY (No) 13789.2%

Adj IY 5516%

CRI 3

Overround 4.9%

LAS 0.20

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1532.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13789.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5516%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.20	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:20:32 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:23:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →