Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%
Leader sits at 92% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.3%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 0.2%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0
Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXESGDPQOQF-26JUN25-T0.6
Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5%
KXESGDPQOQF-26JUN25-T0.5
Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXESGDPQOQF-26JUN25-T0.3
Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXESGDPQOQF-26JUN25-T0.2
Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXESGDPQOQF-26JUN25-T0.4
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Spain's first-quarter 2026 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth will exceed 0.9%. The current 60% probability for the lower threshold (above 0.2%) suggests markets expect positive growth, but the sharp drop to 10% for the 0.6% threshold indicates significant uncertainty about whether growth will reach more robust levels. Spain's GDP growth depends on domestic consumption, eurozone demand, and monetary conditions. The consensus appears skeptical of very strong growth, positioning expectations in a modest positive range. The official Spanish GDP flash estimate release in late April or early May will definitively settle the outcome, providing actual quarterly growth data. Until then, forward-looking economic indicators and preliminary survey data remain the primary drivers of probability shifts.
- ›Spain's Q1 2026 preliminary GDP data has not yet been released; the flash estimate typically comes 30-45 days after quarter-end
- ›Market pricing suggests consensus expectations for growth between 0.2% and 0.6% quarterly, below the 0.9% threshold in the question headline
- ›Eurozone economic conditions, ECB policy stance, and Spanish labor market performance through March 2026 will mechanically determine actual growth
- ›The 10-fold probability gap between the 0.2% and 0.6% thresholds reveals acute disagreement about mid-range growth outcomes
- ›Trading volume has been zero in 24 hours, indicating low recent market interest and potentially stale pricing pending data release
What moved the line
- Jun 23Above 0.5%↓6pp88→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 0.6%↓5pp17→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 0.5%↓5pp88→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 0.5%↑3pp83→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 0.2%↓3pp96→93¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%last 62% · 0d
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- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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