Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.8%?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $15 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 20,259% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $15 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 20,259% implied yield on the Yes side. Spain's recent QoQ GDP growth has typically ranged 0.4-0.7%, making 0.8% a notably high threshold, yet the price has doubled from 6¢ to 12¢ over seven days, suggesting either informed positioning or thin-market volatility rather than genuine probability shifts. With just 13 days to expiry and a wide 8¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient depth for confident trading and resolution risk is elevated given the cliff index of 7.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.8 yes 100