What is the current probability for "Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 40¢ (40% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8833.7% and 2143.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15-cent spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity or market maker presence.

████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

40¢mid

Bid/Ask 33/46¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T2.6

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

33¢33¢ current

Apr 88¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15-cent spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity or market maker presence. The price has jumped from 8¢ to 32¢ over seven days, yet the current 0¢ quote appears stale or erroneous given the recent movement, creating potential arbitrage opportunities if the market re-activates. With only 13 days until expiry and the absurd 5870% implied yield on the Yes side, this market lacks sufficient depth for meaningful analysis and likely reflects a data feed issue rather than genuine market sentiment on Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth.

Resolution rules

If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 2.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8833.7%

IY (No) 2143.0%

Adj IY 4417%

CRI 2

Overround 5.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8833.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2143.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4417%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:38:54 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T2.6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →