Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.4%?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 43,281% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 43,281% implied yield on the Yes side. The 9¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and with only 13 days to expiry, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a credible consensus on whether Spain's Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth will exceed 3.4%. The modest 7-day price movement (5¢ to 6¢) suggests minimal market engagement, so this contract should be treated as illiquid and potentially mispriced rather than as a genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 3.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T3.4 yes 100