What is the current probability for "Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 15, 2026. 55 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6006.4% and 74.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the IPL?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing June 15, 2026. Sunrisers Hyderabad is priced at an extremely depressed 8¢ with an extraordinary 8,137% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation or market skepticism about their championship prospects heading into the 2026 IPL season.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $83,382.36·OI $654,878.4·Closes Jun 15, 2026·55d remaining

KXIPL-26-SRH

7-day price121 snapshots · 125 regime

12¢10¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Sunrisers Hyderabad is priced at an extremely depressed 8¢ with an extraordinary 8,137% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation or market skepticism about their championship prospects heading into the 2026 IPL season. The 7-day price decline from 4¢ to 7¢ combined with a realized volatility of 1,259% indicates extreme price instability, though the tight 1¢ spread and $505k open interest provide reasonable liquidity for a long-dated cricket futures contract. With 60 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in SRH as a significant longshot, though the astronomical yield warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine odds or illiquidity-driven mispricing.

Resolution rules

If the Sunrisers Hyderabad are the 2026 Indian Premier League Cricket Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6006.4%

IY (No) 74.2%

Adj IY 4805%

CRI 9

RV 1324%

VR 1.46

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6006.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	74.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4805%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1324%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.46	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.20	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:23:28 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPL-26-SRH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →