Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027
Before Feb 1, 2027 is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 11 inside Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before.
Price history
30¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Feb 1, 2027
Rank
#4 of 11
Leader
Before May 1, 2027 46¢
Range
1¢-46¢
Family volume
$16K
Identifier
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01
Jun 5, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$7
Family rank
#4 of 11
11 outcomes · Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$16K
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01
Event family
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Before May 1, 2027 46¢
Current share
0%
Before May 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAY01
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27APR01
Before Mar 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01
Before Feb 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27JAN01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUL01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.