Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026?

The market is pricing an extremely low 6% probability for a Tesla-SpaceX merger or acquisition by September 2026, with zero 24-hour volume and thin $4,944 open interest suggesting minimal liquidity despite the sensational premise. The 5055% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects the asymmetric risk-reward typical of long-shot binary events, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate no recent catalyst has shifted sentiment. With 137 days to expiry and a 3¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative tail-risk market rather than a serious probability assessment of a deal that would face extraordinary regulatory and operational hurdles.

Resolution rules

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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