Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027?

The 14¢ price reflects a 14% probability of a Tesla-SpaceX combination by year-end 2026, but the extreme 942.5% implied yield on "Yes" positions signals severe illiquidity with only $5,732 open interest and zero 24-hour volume—typical of a thin, speculative market where the spread may not reflect true consensus. The 672% realized volatility and 7.0 cliff risk index suggest this contract experiences sharp, unpredictable price swings, likely driven by sporadic news or social media commentary rather than fundamental reassessment, making the current price potentially unreliable as a probability estimate. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears dormant and undertraded, so any meaningful position would face significant execution challenges.

Resolution rules

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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