Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 64% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2028
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
Before May 1, 2027
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
527 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26DEC01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-28JAN01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27JAN01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAY01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27APR01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 58% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will announce a definitive, binding merger or acquisition agreement by May 1, 2027. Currently, both companies operate independently under Elon Musk's leadership, though no public negotiations have been disclosed. The high probability reflects Musk's ownership stake in both entities and theoretical synergy arguments, but is tempered by regulatory uncertainty—particularly SEC and FCC scrutiny of such a combination—and the near-term improbability reflected in the 13% odds assigned to October 2026. Key drivers include Musk's public statements about corporate structure, any disclosure of board discussions, and regulatory signals. The probability gradient across contract dates suggests markets view a deal announcement as more likely after mid-2026 than before, implying either ongoing deliberation or low current likelihood of imminent announcement.
- ›No official merger discussions or binding agreements have been publicly announced as of June 2026, and both companies maintain separate operational and governance structures
- ›Regulatory approval would likely require SEC, FTC, and FCC review; a 58% market probability implies material optimism about regulatory clearance that may not reflect actual bureaucratic likelihood
- ›Shorter-dated contracts (October 2026: 13¢, November 2026: 16¢) trade substantially below the longer-dated May 2027 contract (58¢), indicating market expectation of announcement more likely in late 2026 or early 2027
- ›Musk's dual ownership is a prerequisite but insufficient condition; formal acquisition or merger requires active board engagement, legal documentation, and public disclosure of binding terms
- ›Historical precedent shows mega-cap consolidations involving regulatory assets (SpaceX's satellite licenses, Tesla's vehicle certifications) typically require 12-24 months of formal negotiation after announcement
What moved the line
- Jul 22Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp25→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Before Apr 1, 2027↓3pp46→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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