Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027
Before Mar 1, 2027 is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 11 inside Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before.
Price history
44¢ current
Contract brief
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Mar 1, 2027
Rank
#4 of 11
Leader
Before 2028 64¢
Range
1¢-64¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01
Jul 24, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$190
Family rank
#4 of 11
11 outcomes · Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 44¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
Identifier
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01
Event family
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Before 2028 64¢
Current share
7%
Before 2028
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-28JAN01
Before May 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAY01
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27APR01
Before Mar 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01
Before Feb 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27JAN01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26DEC01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.