Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $469k open interest, and the 56¢ spread represents 83% of the current price—a red flag for execution risk. The Yes position has collapsed 22¢ in seven days (from 89¢ to 67¢), suggesting recent bearish repricing, yet the implied yield of 1574% for Yes contracts remains extraordinarily high, indicating either significant tail risk or mispricing given only 11 days to expiration. With a Cliff Risk Index of 2 and neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where the sharp price drop may reflect genuine uncertainty about TSLA's ability to hold above $360 into month-end rather than a compelling contrarian opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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