Will the brent crude oil close price be above $106.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $106.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with a dramatic 88% price collapse over seven days (34¢ to 4¢), suggesting either a fundamental shift in oil price expectations or potential liquidity crisis given the razor-thin $126 daily volume against $2,426 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with a dramatic 88% price collapse over seven days (34¢ to 4¢), suggesting either a fundamental shift in oil price expectations or potential liquidity crisis given the razor-thin $126 daily volume against $2,426 open interest. The absurd 77,119% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 9,966% realized volatility and a 24 Cliff Risk Index indicates severe mispricing or market dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment. With only 11 days to expiry and a wide 26¢ bid-ask spread, this contract appears illiquid and unreliable for serious trading.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 106.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T106.99 yes 100