Will the brent crude oil close price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $2 open interest, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 2¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $2 open interest, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 2¢ spread. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—such yields are mathematically impossible in functioning markets and indicate virtually no liquidity for contrarian positions. With Brent crude historically trading well above $77.99/bbl and only 5 days to expiry, the 93% probability appears reasonable on fundamentals, but the extreme yield skew and minimal trading activity suggest this market lacks sufficient depth to trust as a genuine probability signal.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 77.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T77.99 yes 100