Will the brent crude oil close price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 in 24-hour volume and $3 open interest, making the 90% yes price potentially unreliable despite the tight 3¢ spread.

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96¢
Bid/Ask 89/98¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $104·Closes Apr 24, 2026·3d remaining
KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T79.99
7-day price193 snapshots · 3 regime
94¢89¢ current
Apr 1764¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 in 24-hour volume and $3 open interest, making the 90% yes price potentially unreliable despite the tight 3¢ spread. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the no side signals severe mispricing or a liquidity crisis rather than genuine market conviction that Brent will close below $80/bbl in 6 days. The recent price movement from 88¢ to 94¢ combined with the high cliff risk index of 16 suggests this contract may face resolution uncertainty or execution challenges near expiry.

Resolution rules

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 79.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1517.4%
IY (No) 99333.4%
Adj IY 49667%
CRI 8
Overround 12.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1517.4%
IY (No)99333.4%
Adj IY49667%
CRI8
Overround12.5%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
9¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:39:04 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T79.99 yes 100

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