Will the heating oil close price be above 3.999 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.999 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,917% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 21% probability, suggesting the 21¢ price may be artificially depressed by illiquidity—the $0 24-hour volume and $169.77 open interest indicate virtually no trading activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,917% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 21% probability, suggesting the 21¢ price may be artificially depressed by illiquidity—the $0 24-hour volume and $169.77 open interest indicate virtually no trading activity. The sharp 15-cent price decline over 7 days combined with a 2.41 volatility ratio and 4,806% realized volatility signal high uncertainty, though with 14 days to expiry and an 8-cent spread, this contract lacks the liquidity needed for reliable pricing discovery. The neutral regime and 3.4 info arrivals per hour suggest modest fundamental activity, making this a speculative position rather than a fundamentally-driven trade.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 3.999 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T3.999 yes 100