Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 16, 2027. 390 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 575.4% and 15.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	575.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	164%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.43	Liquidity Availability Score

Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?

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