Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be between 6% and 9%
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 16, 2027
347 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be between 3% and 6%
Analysis
This market estimates a 26% probability that Julia Letlow will win Louisiana's 2026 Republican Senate primary by a margin between 6% and 9%. The relatively low probability reflects uncertainty about whether her victory, if it occurs, will fall within this narrow band rather than by a larger or smaller margin. The outcome depends on the Republican primary field composition—whether other strong candidates enter the race and how consolidated the anti-Letlow vote becomes. Primary voting on Election Day will definitively resolve whether she wins and by what exact margin. Key uncertainties include candidate entry decisions, turnout patterns, and how vote distribution across competing candidates affects her final margin.
- ›Field size and candidate quality: Whether credible Republican challengers besides the current runner-up enter the race materially affects vote concentration and margin outcomes
- ›Letlow's baseline support: Polling data on her current standing versus potential rivals indicates whether she has a natural ceiling or floor in the 6-9% margin range
- ›Campaign dynamics: Endorsements, spending, and candidate positioning in the months before voting could shift vote distribution enough to move Letlow's margin outside this specific band
- ›Primary turnout: Total voter participation and demographic composition of those voting influences whether Letlow's core support translates to a 6-9% or different margin
- ›Runoff possibility: Louisiana's runoff rules mean results depend on first-round performance; if no candidate reaches the threshold, dynamics change entirely
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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