What is the current probability for "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26199.99 at the end of Apr 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 92¢ (92% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 21, 2026. 0 days remaining.

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26199.99 at the end of Apr 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26199.99 at the end of Apr 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing April 21, 2026.

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92¢

Bid/Ask 0/100¢·Spread 100¢·Vol $1·OI $91·Closes Apr 21, 2026·0d remaining

KXNASDAQ100U-26APR21H1600-T26199.99

7-day price58 snapshots · 1 regime

96¢96¢ current

Apr 2086¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on April 21, 2026 is above 26199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Adj IY 24333%

CRI 24

RV 429%

VR 0.07

IAR 2.8/h

Overround 4.8%

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
Adj IY	24333%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	429%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.07	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

100¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:56:59 PM

Observability directEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNASDAQ100U-26APR21H1600-T26199.99 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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