Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27999.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 74¢ (74% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27999.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 38.2% and 540.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27999.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	38.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	540.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	540%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2207%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	33.48	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	9.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27999.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

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